You may have been among the 30 or so people who reported feeling the earth move here in Hong Kong during the devastating earthquake that struck Sichuan on May 12. According to Hong Kong Observatory records, no previous earthquakes felt in Hong Kong had an epicentre further than this one - 1, 450 kilometres away.
Still, there is no reason to fear such a temblor would occur here in Hong Kong, experts say. The laws of nature back them up.
The Observatory's Scientific Officer (Geophysics, Time & Port Meteorological Services) Wong Wang-chun said Hong Kong is not situated in a seismically-active area. It is 600km away from the nearest plate boundary - with the Pacific Plate on the circum-Pacific seismic belt that runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines - so the chance of a major tremor occurring here is very low.
Historical data shows the frequency of large-magnitude earthquakes drops rapidly at distances greater than 200km from the plate boundary: There were 54 locally-felt tremors reported from 1979 to 2008, averaging just two a year. By comparison, Japan experiences about 1,500 earthquakes each year.
Including the May 12 Sichuan tremor, Hong Kong has recorded a total of 164 felt-earthquakes since 1905, all without casualty. Most were of intensity V - "rather strong" - or below on the Modified Mercalli Scale. The strongest tremor was intensity VI to VII, or "strong" to "very strong".
The Wenchuan epicentre was XI, or "very disastrous" in intensity, but Hong Kong experienced an intensity of just III, "slight". A tremor of intensity V - which will be felt outdoors - is expected to occur here only once every 15 to 20 years. Intensity VII tremors - which make it difficult for a person to remain standing - are expected only once in 350 to 400 years.
Local buildings safe
Typhoons pose a much greater threat to Hong Kong than do earthquakes. That is why local buildings are required to resist wind gusts of up to 250km/hr - giving them considerable load-resisting capability, Buildings Department Chief Structural Engineer Edmond Chan says. So even under an intensity VII earthquake, buildings designed to current requirements would be safe and not incur major damage.
Mr Chan said a consultancy study on the effects of an earthquake on Hong Kong buildings is almost finished. Initial findings confirm most local buildings are basically safe and would withstand tremors that might occur here.
When the study is complete, his department will consider the findings in detail to decide whether building regulations need to include rules on buildings' ability to withstand seismic activity.
Slope facilities unaffected
Civil Engineering & Development Department Chief Geotechnical Engineer (Standards & Testing) Pun Wai-keung said earthquake-risk studies have classified Hong Kong and Guangdong province as having only low to moderate "seismicity" - a measure of the frequency, intensity, and distribution of earthquakes in a given area. That is significantly lower than areas such as Japan, Taiwan and the western United States.
Geological mapping showed there was little significant activity on the faults in Hong Kong recently, he said. There is no record of a quake ever having caused a landslide here. Studies also show the risk of quake-induced man-made slope failures is much smaller than that due to heavy rainfall.
The department will continue geological mapping of faults, to examine them for evidence of recent movement. It will also carry out studies into earthquake hazards, Mr Pun added, to enhance understanding of the potential impact of earthquakes in Hong Kong.
Emergency response system ready
While there is only a slim chance of Hong Kong experiencing a serious earthquake, safeguards exist to protect lives, property and public security. In the event of a strong tremor, the Security Bureau said it would activate the emergency response system.
The bureau's Government Security Officer Ivy Cheng said should any serious incidents like earthquakes occur, the bureau will activate this system at once, to co-ordinate the command and control centres of the emergency services and support departments, to conduct rescue, recovery and restoration work.
The three-tier system has been effective in responding to all emergency situations, she said, adding it will put in place measures according to an incident's impact. For example, tier 3 will be initiated when black rainstorm or No. 8 typhoon warnings are issued.
While the chance of Hong Kong having a major earthquake is low, Ms Cheng said the co-ordination framework under the Contingency Plan for Natural Disasters also applies to quakes.
She added various natural-disaster elements, including earthquakes, are included in regular Government exercises. Hong Kong's emergency services are well-trained and have resources to respond to major emergencies.
Be prepared
While the chance of an intense earth tremor here is slim, it does not hurt to be prepared. If you experience an earthquake, do not panic. Remain calm, and avoid glass or loose-hanging objects. If outdoors, move away from buildings, steep slopes and utility wires.
Click here for more safety rules, or refer to the bureau's booklet, Simple Guidelines in the Event of Major Mishaps.
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