Weather man: Hong Kong Observatory Director Lam Chiu-ying discusses Hong Kong's temperature trend.

Hong Kong could lose its winter, Hong Kong Observatory Director Lam Chiu-ying says, forecasting the number of very hot days and hot nights will rise in the coming century.

Briefing reporters today on the updated projection for the city's temperature trend, Mr Lam said taking into account various greenhouse gas emission scenarios and urbanisation, there will be a temperature rise of up to 6.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

In summer there will be more hot nights with a minimum temperature at or above 28 degrees. By the end of the century there could be up to 54 hot nights a year, compared with 15 at the end of the last century.

The number of very hot days with a maximum temperature at or above 33 degrees will also increase to up to 19 per year compared to seven at the end of the last century.

"The average of all calculation results based on different scenarios shows by 2030-2039, there will be less than one cold day a year, meaning for some winters, there will not be any cold days at all," Mr Lam said.

He said if the high emission scenario is coupled with continued urbanisation, the time for this to occur will be advanced to 2020-2029, and people will witness the disappearance of winter in Hong Kong.

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Olympic focus

In the coming year the Observatory will focus on providing the best possible weather service to support the Olympics, including weather observations, and forecast and warnings for the equestrian competition venues in Hong Kong.

The observatory will run a 'nowcasting' system to support its Beijing counterparts in serving the Olympics, together with a tailor-made weather information service to cater to Hong Kong's windsurfing team competing in Qingdao.

For this year's weather Mr Lam predicts six to eight tropical cyclones coming within 500km of Hong Kong as the La Nina phenomena will continue into spring. Annual rainfall is expected to be near normal.

To celebrate World Meteorological Day on March 23 the observatory will open to the public March 15 and 16.