Population projections: Deputy Commissioner for Census & Statistics Dominic Leung, Commissioner Fung Hing-wang and Assistant Commissioner Chan Ka-lin unveil Hong Kong's latest population projections at a press conference.

The Hong Kong population is expected to reach 8.57 million in 30 years, according to Census & Statistics Department's updated set of population projections.

The projections have highlighted three demographical trends: the slowing of Hong Kong's population growth, an ageing population and a declining male:female ratio. This will lead to changes in the patterns of demands for social services, and the Government will consider necessary adjustments in planning for these services and the resources required.

Commissioner for Census & Statistics Fung Hing-wang said today the Hong Kong resident population will rise at an average annual rate of 0.7%, from 6.86 million in mid-2006 to 8.57 million in mid-2036.

Stable growth

The annual growth rate will remain relatively stable at about 0.7 - 0.9% for the next 20 years. As the population ages, the number of deaths will increase, slackening the annual growth rate to 0.4% towards the end of the projection period.

From mid-2006 to mid-2036, the overall population is projected to expand by 1.71 million, resulting from a natural increase of 490,000 and a net movement of 1.22 million.

Within the Hong Kong resident population, the number of usual residents will go up at an average annual rate of 0.7%, from 6.64 million in mid-2006 to 8.14 million in mid-2036. The number of mobile residents will climb at a faster rate of 2.2%, from 218,800 to 426,300.

This is mainly related to the increasing trend of Hong Kong residents working and spending more of their time in the Mainland, along with closer economic ties between the two places.

Low fertility rate

Hong Kong's fertility rate experienced a marked and continuous decline in the past two decades, falling to 984 births per 1,000 women last year, from 1,367 in 1986. The rate is forecast to slide to 900 in 2036.

On babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women, Mr Fung pointed out a survey conducted early this year found 65% of babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women whose spouses are Hong Kong permanent residents will stay in the city. The rest will leave Hong Kong within the first year of their birth, and 90% of them will return to the city before they reach the age of 21.

For babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women whose spouses are not Hong Kong permanent residents, it is projected that about 9% will stay in Hong Kong. The other 91% will leave Hong Kong within the first year of their birth. Among them, 58% will return to Hong Kong before the age of 21.

Ageing trend

"The population is expected to remain on an ageing trend. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise markedly, from 12% in 2006 to 26% in 2036, though the rise will be gradual up to around 2016 when the proportion will reach 15% and will be at a much faster pace thereafter," Mr Fung said.

He added the proportion of the population aged under 15 will decrease gradually, from 14% in 2006 to 12% by the end of the projection period.

The ageing trend is also revealed by the increasing median age of the population, from 39.6 years in 2006 to 46.1 in 2036.

In 2006, the life expectancy at birth was 79.5 years for men and 85.6 years for women. Over the next 30 years, the figures are expected to grow 3.2 years for men and 2.7 for women.

Women to outnumber men

The number of men per 1,000 women in the population will fall noticeably, from 912 in 2006 to 709 in 2036. There will be variations in the sex ratio by age group, with the sex ratio for the age group 25-44 expected to be much affected by the presence of mostly young women who are foreign domestic helpers.

Also relevant is the continued entry of one-way permit holders in the coming years, many being Hong Kong men's wives living on the Mainland. When foreign domestic helpers are excluded from the data, the sex ratio of the population is higher, but still will fall from 971 in 2006 to 763 in 2036.

Future strategies

The Government will, in view of the projections, review how to liberalise its policy to attract quality entrants for employment, study and investment. On the ageing population, the Government will look into what can be done to enhance old-age security, taking note of the coverage of the social safety net for the elderly and with special attention to elderly homes policy and primary healthcare. 

A consultation will be launched later this year on healthcare reform, including financing arrangements.

The Government will consider necessary adjustments to its policies to meet the needs of the population's altered gender structure.

Detailed projection results can be found in Hong Kong Population Projections 2007-2036 published online today. Hong Kong Life Tables 2001-2036, describing Hong Kong's present and future mortality conditions in the form of life tables, is also available. Users can download the publications here for free.