Population projection: Commissioner for Census & Statistics Frederick Ho says Hong Kong's population could reach 8.38 million by 2033.

Hong Kong's population could reach 8.38 million by 2033, according to the latest Census & Statistics Department projections.

From mid-2003 to mid-2033, the population is expected to grow by 1.58 million. The resident population is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.7%, from 6.8 million to 8.38 million.

Between mid-2004 and mid-2011, the annual growth rate will accelerate, from 0.6% to 0.9%. Yet with an increased number of deaths upon aging of the population, the annual growth rate is expected to slacken to 0.4% towards the end of the projection period.

The number of usual residents is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.6% from 6.62 million in mid-2003 to 8.02 million in mid-2033, while the number of mobile residents will increase at a faster rate of 2.3% from 185,000 to 365,000. This is mainly related to the increasing trend of Hong Kong residents working and staying for more of their time on the Mainland, along with closer economic ties between the two places.

Population stays on an aging trend

Commissioner for Census & Statistics Frederick Ho said the population is expected to remain on an aging trend. The proportion aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 11.7% to 27%, though the rise will be gradual up to around 2015 (when the proportion will reach 14.3%) and will be at a much faster pace thereafter. At the same time, the proportion of the population under 15 will fall gradually from 16% to 11%.

The aging trend is also revealed by the increasing median age of the population, from 38 in 2003 to 49 in 2033.

Females remain dominant in sex ratio

The number of males per 1,000 females is projected to fall noticeably, from 939 to 698. There will be variations in the sex ratio by age group, in particular the 25-44 group is expected to be much affected by the presence of foreign domestic helpers comprising mostly younger females. Also relevant is the continued entry of One-way Permit Holders, many being local men's wives living in the Mainland.

Making reference to data which excludes foreign domestic helpers, the sex ratio of the population is higher, but still will come down from 997 to 749. The movement of Mainland wives into Hong Kong and the fact that females live longer than males are main reasons.

Life expectancy continues to rise

Hong Kong has experienced a continuous fall in mortality during the last two decades, with a corresponding increase in expectation of life. The expectation of life at birth for males rose from 72.3 years in 1983 to 78.6 years (provisional) in 2003, and for females from 78.4 to 84.3 years (provisional).

Compared with other economies, Hong Kong enjoys a very low mortality. The life expectancy is projected to rise in the next 30 years, yet the rate of increase during this period will be slower than in the past. By 2033, the expectations of life at birth will be 82.5 years for males and 88 years for females.

Essential data

Mr Ho said: "Population projections provide a common basis for the Government in planning public services and facilities. They are constantly rolled forward and updated to take advantage of information on latest developments of the population.

"Statistical studies using modelling methods as far as possible are made on the past trends and recent developments pertaining to the local socio-economic conditions to generate the fertility, mortality and movement assumptions.

"Where Government policies are involved, it is taken that existing policies will continue to apply. For example, the existing policy of a daily quota of 150 One-way Permit Holders entering from the Mainland is taken to apply in the projection period."

Population Taskforce to tackle challenges

Chief Secretary for Administration Donald Tsang said the Taskforce on Population Policy will tackle the challenges arising from Hong Kong's demographic changes. A review on the latest projection figures is underway.

"In tackling long-term challenges related to population policy, it is necessary to engage the public widely in discussions and work out possible new policies, which must have full regard for local long-term social and economic development, family values and the aspirations of different sectors in the community," he said.

The taskforce will consult the public and the Legislative Council on possible approaches to address the known challenges, and any new problems identified.

Mr Tsang said the taskforce will undertake in-depth studies of the challenges identified, assess their full impact on policies and public services, and publish a report in 2005-06 to encourage public discussion.

HK Population Projections 2004-2033, detailing the projection results, is now on sale. Another publication, HK Life Tables 1998-2033, describing the present and future mortality conditions of Hong Kong in the form of life tables is also available. They can be purchased online at the Statistical Bookstore.